What do Arizona, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Montana, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, Wyoming all have in common? Right! All voted for Bush in 2004 and all have Governors who are Democrats. OK, how about California, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont? Yep -- all went Blue in the 2004 race but elected Republican governors.
40% of our states vote one way for President and another for Governor -- and I'd bet that our crossover governors are some of the best leaders we've got.
Of course, not all crossover governors are impressive. Kathleen Blanco proved herself the Nero of New Orleans during Katrina. Public employee unions turned der Arnold into a girlie-man after he poked them in the eye. But absent serious opposition, he'll be back (and next time, it won't be the eye).
Many of these governors are strong managers: Tennessee's Phil Bredesen led the state through a budget crisis without raising taxes or cutting education spending. Linda Lingle is the Republican governor of the most Democratic state in the union (and a Jew and former union hack to boot -- I gotta meet this woman). She has pushed through a broad governmental reform and carries approval ratings in the high 60's. Most have avoided increasing taxes: Bill Richardson claims that he has cut taxes in New Mexico and increased investment in infrastructure. Mitt Romney has passed a state health care plan that claims to offer universal health care without increasing taxes on business.
Where do good presidents come from? There is no single answer, but experience in the executive branch helps. Of the 19 presidents since the start of the twentieth century, eight previously held elected executive branch positions as Governor and five as Vice President. Only two legislators were elected President during this time: John Kennedy and Warren Harding, both Senators.
Presidential scholars rank the effectiveness of past Presidents. The correlation between prior experience and future performance is strong but not perfect. Four out of our five best twentieth century presidents (both Roosevelts, Wilson, and Truman) had held elected executive branch positions. Truman's experience was only 81 days however, and the exception, Dwight Eisenhower, had extensive unelected experience in the executive branch. Likewise three out of our five weakest presidents had no prior experience as elected executives: Ford, Hoover, and Harding. On the other hand, Calvin Coolidge was an undistinguished governor and an undistinguished Vice President before becoming an undistinguished president.
Although Governors and Vice Presidents make the best presidents, both Republicans and Democrats are at the moment infatuated with candidates who are now Senators. John McCain and Hillary Clinton are intelligent and hard-working, but neither has a record of executive leadership. The last Republican Senator to run for President was crushed by a former governor and now sells Viagra. The last Democratic Senator to run for President lost narrowly to a weak, inarticulate, unpopular former governor.
We have governors and former governors who are well-qualified for the presidency. Several (Bill Richardson, Mitt Romney, Tom Vilsack, and Mark Warner) are ready to run.
Two of our most interesting governors (Jennifer Granholm and Arnold Schwarzenegger) cannot run for President because they were not born in the United States. This dumb 18th century rule is worth repealing: if America elects you, the job should be yours. Let voters sort it out. Frankly, if Americans want to elect Tony Blair to the White House, I say make it legal. We could do worse -- and we have.